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Tuesday, November 02, 2004

Punditry & Predictions

I'm not much of a pundit, or even an expert in much of anything but nevertheless, I have decided to post my predictions for the electoral college voting. This way you can make fun of me if I'm way off. My magic number is 300. I know I'm going out on a limb here, but I have a gut feeling that Kerry will win decisively. We shall see.

Kerry: 300
Bush: 238
Nader: 0

I give Bush IA, MO, WV, VA, HI, AZ and Kerry gets MN, MI, WI, OH, PA, FL, NJ, NH, NM, WA, OR.

I feel strange about Hawaii going to Bush because it seems so strange, but that's how its tracking as of late. I'll throw it in as a red state to keep at an even 300.

Ok, there's my prediction. Feel free to comment.

Update: 4:14 PM
Popular vote prediction? This one I'm not sure of. I'd say Kerry should win by 2-6 points, but you never know. I would laugh if Bush won the popular vote, but I don't see that happening. One big factor will be turnout in solid blue and red states. If turnout is strong in those state as it will be in swing states, Kerry wins the popular vote.

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